Background incidence rates of selected adverse events of special interest (AESI) to monitor the safety of COVID-19 vaccines.

BACKGROUND: Determining background rates of medical conditions identified as adverse events of special interest (AESI) that may occur following COVID-19 vaccination is important for contextualising and investigating potential vaccine safety signals. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective population-based cohort study using linked emergency department, hospitalisation and death data for 2017 and 2018 from Australia's most populous state, New South Wales. Incident cases of select neurological conditions, arterial or venous thromboembolic conditions, secondary thrombocytopenia, myocarditis/pericarditis, and unique events of anaphylaxis and generalised convulsions were identified using internationally agreed upon diagnostic (ICD-10) codes. State-specific rates per 100,000 person-years were calculated, with further stratification by age group and sex where clinically relevant to the condition, and the number of expected cases nationally in one and 6 weeks was estimated. RESULTS: Background rates of selected neurological conditions were low with the exception of generalised convulsions for which 1,599-1,872 cases were estimated nationally in a 1-week period in the absence of vaccination. Using a narrow case definition, rates of Guillain-Barré Syndrome (3.9 per 100,000 person-years) were higher than international rates reported elsewhere. Thromboembolic and cerebral venous sinus thrombosis event rates increased with age. Myocarditis occurred more commonly in males, and was highest in males aged 18-24 years, with an estimated 1-4 cases expected nationally in a 1-week period. CONCLUSIONS: Using routinely collected linked healthcare data provides localised estimates of background rates of new onset or periodic AESI which enables rapid estimation of observed-versus-expected rates of events reported following COVID-19 vaccination. This Australian-specific analysis contributes AESI background rates which can be compared with those from other countries to enhance understanding of geographic variability in the frequency of specific AESI in the absence of vaccination, and can be utilised for signal detection during program implementation.

Background rates of 41 adverse events of special interest for COVID-19 vaccines in 10 European healthcare databases - an ACCESS cohort study.

BACKGROUND: In May 2020, the ACCESS (The vACCine covid-19 monitoring readinESS) project was launched to prepare real-world monitoring of COVID-19 vaccines. Within this project, this study aimed to generate background incidence rates of 41 adverse events of special interest (AESI) to contextualize potential safety signals detected following administration of COVID-19 vaccines. METHODS: A dynamic cohort study was conducted using a distributed data network of 10 healthcare databases from 7 European countries (Italy, Spain, Denmark, The Netherlands, Germany, France and United Kingdom) over the period 2017 to 2020. A common protocol (EUPAS37273), common data model, and common analytics programs were applied for syntactic, semantic and analytical harmonization. Incidence rates (IR) for each AESI and each database were calculated by age and sex by dividing the number of incident cases by the total person-time at risk. Age-standardized rates were pooled using random effect models according to the provenance of the events. FINDINGS: A total number of 63,456,074 individuals were included in the study, contributing to 211.7 million person-years. A clear age pattern was observed for most AESIs, rates also varied by provenance of disease diagnosis (primary care, specialist care). Thrombosis with thrombocytopenia rates were extremely low ranging from 0.06 to 4.53/100,000 person-years for cerebral venous sinus thrombosis (CVST) with thrombocytopenia (TP) and mixed venous and arterial thrombosis with TP, respectively. INTERPRETATION: Given the nature of the AESIs and the setting (general practitioners or hospital-based databases or both), background rates from databases that show the highest level of completeness (primary care and specialist care) should be preferred, others can be used for sensitivity. The study was designed to ensure representativeness to the European population and generalizability of the background incidence rates. FUNDING: The project has received support from the European Medicines Agency under the Framework service contract nr EMA/2018/28/PE.

Background rates of adverse events of special interest for COVID-19 vaccine safety monitoring in the United States, 2019-2020.

BACKGROUND: The U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) Biologics Effectiveness and Safety (BEST) Initiative conducts active surveillance of adverse events of special interest (AESI) after COVID-19 vaccination. Historical incidence rates (IRs) of AESI are comparators to evaluate safety. METHODS: We estimated IRs of 17 AESI in six administrative claims databases from January 1, 2019, to December 11, 2020: Medicare claims for adults ≥ 65 years and commercial claims (Blue Health Intelligence®, CVS Health, HealthCore Integrated Research Database, IBM® MarketScan® Commercial Database, Optum pre-adjudicated claims) for adults < 65 years. IRs were estimated by sex, age, race/ethnicity (Medicare), and nursing home residency (Medicare) in 2019 and for specific periods in 2020. RESULTS: The study included >100 million enrollees annually. In 2019, rates of most AESI increased with age. However, compared with commercially insured adults, Medicare enrollees had lower IRs of anaphylaxis (11 vs 12-19 per 100,000 person-years), appendicitis (80 vs 117-155), and narcolepsy (38 vs 41-53). Rates were higher in males than females for most AESI across databases and varied by race/ethnicity and nursing home status (Medicare). Acute myocardial infarction (Medicare) and anaphylaxis (all databases) IRs varied by season. IRs of most AESI were lower during March-May 2020 compared with March-May 2019 but returned to pre-pandemic levels after May 2020. However, rates of Bell's palsy, Guillain-Barré syndrome, narcolepsy, and hemorrhagic/non-hemorrhagic stroke remained lower in multiple databases after May 2020, whereas some AESI (e.g., disseminated intravascular coagulation) exhibited higher rates after May 2020 compared with 2019. CONCLUSION: AESI background rates varied by database and demographics and fluctuated in March-December 2020, but most returned to pre-pandemic levels after May 2020. It is critical to standardize demographics and consider seasonal and other trends when comparing historical rates with post-vaccination AESI rates in the same database to evaluate COVID-19 vaccine safety.

Factors Influencing Background Incidence Rate Calculation: Systematic Empirical Evaluation Across an International Network of Observational Databases.

Objective: Background incidence rates are routinely used in safety studies to evaluate an association of an exposure and outcome. Systematic research on sensitivity of rates to the choice of the study parameters is lacking. Materials and Methods: We used 12 data sources to systematically examine the influence of age, race, sex, database, time-at-risk, season and year, prior observation and clean window on incidence rates using 15 adverse events of special interest for COVID-19 vaccines as an example. For binary comparisons we calculated incidence rate ratios and performed random-effect meta-analysis. Results: We observed a wide variation of background rates that goes well beyond age and database effects previously observed. While rates vary up to a factor of 1,000 across age groups, even after adjusting for age and sex, the study showed residual bias due to the other parameters. Rates were highly influenced by the choice of anchoring (e.g., health visit, vaccination, or arbitrary date) for the time-at-risk start. Anchoring on a healthcare encounter yielded higher incidence comparing to a random date, especially for short time-at-risk. Incidence rates were highly influenced by the choice of the database (varying by up to a factor of 100), clean window choice and time-at-risk duration, and less so by secular or seasonal trends. Conclusion: Comparing background to observed rates requires appropriate adjustment and careful time-at-risk start and duration choice. Results should be interpreted in the context of study parameter choices.

Expected Rates of Select Adverse Events After Immunization for Coronavirus Disease 2019 Vaccine Safety Monitoring.

Using meta-analytic methods, we calculated expected rates of 20 potential adverse events of special interest (AESI) that would occur after coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccination within 1-, 7-, and 42-day intervals without causal associations. Based on these expected rates, if 10 000 000 persons are vaccinated, (1) 0.5, 3.7, and 22.5 Guillain-Barre syndrome cases, (2) 0.3, 2.4, and 14.3 myopericarditis cases, (3) and 236.5, 1655.5, and 9932.8 all-cause deaths would occur coincidentally within 1, 7, and 42 days postvaccination, respectively. Expected rates of potential AESI can contextualize events associated temporally with immunization, aid in safety signal detection, guide COVID-19 vaccine health communications, and inform COVID-19 vaccine benefit-risk assessments.

Background incidence rates of adverse events of special interest related to COVID-19 vaccines in Ontario, Canada, 2015 to 2020, to inform COVID-19 vaccine safety surveillance.

BACKGROUND: Background incidence rates are critical in pharmacovigilance to facilitate identification of vaccine safety signals. We estimated background incidence rates of 11 adverse events of special interest related to COVID-19 vaccines in Ontario, Canada. METHODS: We conducted a population-based retrospective observational study using linked health administrative databases for hospitalizations and emergency department visits among Ontario residents. We estimated incidence rates of Bell's palsy, idiopathic thrombocytopenia, febrile convulsions, acute disseminated encephalomyelitis, myocarditis, pericarditis, Kawasaki disease, Guillain-Barré syndrome, transverse myelitis, acute myocardial infarction, and anaphylaxis during five pre-pandemic years (2015-2019) and 2020. RESULTS: The average annual population was 14 million across all age groups with 51% female. The pre-pandemic mean annual rates per 100,000 population during 2015-2019 were 191 for acute myocardial infarction, 43.9 for idiopathic thrombocytopenia, 28.8 for anaphylaxis, 27.8 for Bell's palsy, 25.0 for febrile convulsions, 22.8 for acute disseminated encephalomyelitis, 11.3 for myocarditis/pericarditis, 8.7 for pericarditis, 2.9 for myocarditis, 2.0 for Kawasaki disease, 1.9 for Guillain-Barré syndrome, and 1.7 for transverse myelitis. Females had higher rates of acute disseminated encephalomyelitis, transverse myelitis and anaphylaxis while males had higher rates of myocarditis, pericarditis, and Guillain-Barré syndrome. Bell's palsy, acute disseminated encephalomyelitis, and Guillain-Barré syndrome increased with age. The mean rates of myocarditis and/or pericarditis increased with age up to 79 years; males had higher rates than females: from 12 to 59 years for myocarditis and ≥12 years for pericarditis. Febrile convulsions and Kawasaki disease were predominantly childhood diseases and generally decreased with age. CONCLUSIONS: Our estimated background rates will permit estimating numbers of expected events for these conditions and facilitate detection of potential safety signals following COVID-19 vaccination.

U.S. Population-Based background incidence rates of medical conditions for use in safety assessment of COVID-19 vaccines.

The Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has had a devastating impact on global health, and has resulted in an unprecedented, international collaborative effort to develop vaccines to control the outbreak, protect human lives, and avoid further social and economic disruption. Mass vaccination campaigns are underway in multiple countries and are expected worldwide once more vaccine becomes available. Some early candidate vaccines use novel platforms, such as mRNA encapsulated in lipid nanoparticles, and relatively new platforms, such as replication-deficient viral vectors. While these new vaccine platforms hold promise, limited safety data in humans are available. Serious health outcomes linked to vaccinations are rare, and some outcomes may occur incidentally in the vaccinated population. Knowledge of background incidence rates of these medical conditions is a critical component of vaccine safety monitoring to aid in the assessment of adverse events temporally associated with vaccination and to put these events into context with what would be expected due to chance alone. A list of 22 potential adverse events of special interest (AESI), including neurologic, autoimmune, and cardiovascular disorders, was compiled by subject matter experts at the U.S. Food and Drug Administration and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The most recently available U.S. background rates for these medical conditions, overall and by age, sex, and race/ethnicity (when available), were sourced from reported statistics (data published by medical panels/ associations or federal government reports), and literature reviews in PubMed. This review provides estimates of background incidence rates for medical conditions that may be monitored or studied as AESI during safety surveillance and research for COVID-19 vaccines and other new vaccines.

The critical role of background rates of possible adverse events in the assessment of COVID-19 vaccine safety.

Beginning in December of 2019, a novel coronavirus, SARS-CoV-2, emerged in China and is now a global pandemic with extensive morbidity and mortality. With the emergence of this threat, an unprecedented effort to develop vaccines against this virus began. As vaccines are now being introduced globally, we face the prospect of millions of people being vaccinated with multiple types of vaccines many of which use new vaccine platforms. Since medical events happen without vaccines, it will be important to know at what rate events occur in the background so that when adverse events are identified one has a frame of reference with which to compare the rates of these events so as to make an initial assessment as to whether there is a potential safety concern or not. Background rates vary over time, by geography, by sex, socioeconomic status and by age group. Here we describe two key steps for post-introduction safety evaluation of COVID-19 vaccines: Defining a dynamic list of Adverse Events of Special Interest (AESI) and establishing background rates for these AESI. We use multiple examples to illustrate use of rates and caveats for their use. In addition we discuss tools available from the Brighton Collaboration that facilitate case evaluation and understanding of AESI.